Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6

This study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in south-southeast region of Mexico during historical period 1980–2014, as well future periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, recommended by IPCC. Additionally, sought identify climate change scenario that is most closely aligned with socio-environmental conditions zone has greatest impact on region’s average temperature. The downscaling method bias correction was conducted at a spatial resolution 0.25° × 0.25°, an analysis performed for 1980–2014 ERA5 four CMIP6 models (CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, MRI-ESM2-0). process extended projections. indicated differences less than 0.5 °C respect ERA5, agreement other studies. current calculated using three scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP5-8.5). z-eq proposal used compare slopes, enabling us which corresponded trend, assuming identical conditions. SSP4-6.0 found correspond trend.